Wednesday, June 3, 2009

NBA Finals Preview

Everybody and their Grandmas are posting a preview, so I figured I would join the party. This years pairing is the LA Lakers versus the Orlando Magic.

First of all, big ups to my man D$ who had the courage to predict the Magic to make it when everyone else was picking the LeBrons. I have to admit, I enjoyed watching the NBA's (along with Nike, Vitamin Water and ESPN) dream match-up blow up in their face.

We will go position by position:

Center: Dwight Howard vs. Andrew Bynum

Bynum has struggled a little bit since returning from his knee injury. Howard looked absolutely unstoppable in Game 6 against the Cavs. It might have been because the Cavs quit, but he looked really good. Bynum has not shown to be a game changer on either end of floor while Howard has. Big Advantage: Orlando

Power Forward: Rashard Lewis vs. Pau Gasol

Lewis has been shooting the lights out from distance this post season and has shown a knack for making big shots. His range will take Gasol away from the basket and increase offensive rebounding opportunities for the Magic. However, on the other end of the floor, it would appear Pau has a huge advantage offensively over Lewis. His ability to score down low and hit the mid-range jumper over Lewis should pay huge dividends. Advantage: LA

Small Forward: Hedo Turkoglu vs. Trevor Ariza

At 6-10, Turkoglu is a tough match-up for any small forward. He can shoot over them or take them to the rim. His ability to hit the three is a huge weapon in his arsenal as well. Ariza has improved greatly since he left the Knicks. Then again, who wouldn't? Ariza is a "high-energy" guy and a fairly decent defender. Depending on how this series goes, Lamar Odom might gets some starts here depending on how the series plays out early. Advantage: Orlando

Shooting Guard: Courtney Lee vs. Kobe Bryant

I am not going to spend much time on this. Courtney Lee is fairly decent and even though I think Ko-me is a butthead, he is one of the greatest players ever. Big Advantage: LA

Point Guard: Rafer Alston vs. Derek Fisher

This one is tough to call. Alston has been huge after he was acquired to replace the injured Jameer Nelson (more on that later). Other than the stupid head slapping of Eddie House is Rd. 2 he has been a very steadying influence on this team and has shown the ability to hit open shots. Derek Fisher has been around forever and it seems like he is always on teams that go deep into the playoffs. That is not coincidence. The guy is a savvy veteran with a knack for making big shots. I just don't think he can keep up with Alston. Slight Advantage: Orlando

Bench:

Martin Gortat has played quite well this post season when Howard has needed a rest or was out (see game 6 vs. Philly). Anthony Johnson has played well as Alston's back-up and Mickael Pietrus has been shooting and defending very well. There have been rumors that Jameer Nelson might come back for the Finals. I think that would be a spark for the Magic. LA's bench numbers are slightly skewed since it could be argued that Lamar Odom should be a starter. Odom is one of those guys that is a game changer when he feels like playing and a waste of space when he doesn't. DJ Mbenga might get some playing time to try to beat up Howard. Luke Walton will get his minutes. Jordan Farmar plays well in spurts and Sasha Vuajic can be trouble is he gets hot from the outside.

Advantage: LA

Coaching: Stan van Gundy vs. Phil Jackson

You have the hyperactive Ron Jeremy look-a-like versus the condescending smugness of Phil Jackson. People have been dogging van Gundy all during these playoffs, and some people say Orlando got here in spite of him. That may be the case, but here they are. In the interest of full disclosure, I will admit I cannot stand Phil Jackson for reasons too numerous to mention. It is hard to argue with the results though (see 9 NBA Championships).

Big Advantage: LA

Final Analysis:

Everyone has been picking the Lakers and I fully understand why. They have, arguably, the best player and best coach on the planet. However the Lakers have shown a tendency not to show up for every game. They have lost home court in the last two rounds in games 1 and 2 respectively but have managed to get it back by stealing one on the road. I really think Orlando can win in LA more than once and they did sweep the Lakers in the regular season. If they do, I am not so sure LA will be able to flip the switch and regain home-court advantage like they have before. I am calling for the upset.

Magic in 6

2 comments:

  1. I think if Orlando can steal one away in LA, that might be the difference, especially if they can win Game 3, and win it decisively (10 points, or throw Kobe off his rhythm, etc). I don't think the Lakers can adapt to being thrown off their game, whereas thats one think that Stan Van can do decently well, that is, getting his team to re-adjust...

    ReplyDelete
  2. The problem is only one team (the Miami Heat)has won games 3-5 since the Finals went to a 2-3-2 format. Orlando will probably have to win more than once in LA, which I think they are capable of.

    ReplyDelete